Control Risks CEO Blog

Last week the leaders of the BRIC nations – Brazil, Russia, India and China – held a summit meeting in Durban. The addition of their host, South African President Jacob Zuma, turned BRIC to BRICS and at last gave Africa a deserved inclusion in the now famous Goldman Sachs acronym that has become not only an established part of the investment lexicon but is synonymous with the growing power and influence of emerging markets.

More recently, Jim O’Neill of Goldmans who coined the phrase over a decade ago has suggested that the acronym be re-ordered to reflect what he now regards as the relative investment potential of the original four. BRIC has become CRBI. This not only overstates the prospects for Russia it is also wholly forgettable. BRIC resonated because it sounded like something that is used to build new structures. Had Kazakhstan not South Africa made the grade then it would have had the added potency of being correctly spelt. [Read more...]

Can a country that has grown weary of politics and politicians rediscover the passion for politics that saved it from civil war.

Spending a week in South Africa provides a timely reminder that politics matters. A trip to the Apartheid Museum in Johannesburg is also a reminder that politics in this country is still raw and visceral and that here the tumultuous events of the recent past still define the present. It is a superb museum and worth the detour not least to be reminded that what happened here in the 1990s was one of the most remarkable transitions in the modern era. And that politics, now such a maligned profession in much of the world, can deliver- against the odds-extraordinary results. [Read more...]

As events unfold in Mali and Algeria, we need to avoid jumping to too many grand conclusions.

People often end up doing jobs that they never intended. In 2004, I found myself on a blisteringly hot day eating freeze-dried raw octopus and drinking Japanese Ocha with a Colonel from the Japanese Self Defence Force. We were sitting in his tent in a Japanese military camp in south west Iraq miles from any other human inhabitation. Later, driving across the desert back to Basra, I pondered on what odd combination of events had led me to be taking tea with Japanese soldiers while Iraq descended into sectarian-fuelled violence all around us. [Read more...]

When the French governed Indo-China they had a saying that the Vietnamese planted the rice, the Cambodians watched it grow and the Lao listened to it grow. After a week in northern Laos I have a sense of how slow and remote life might have been in colonial times. Even today, arriving from the bustle of Bangkok, it takes a while to adjust to the fact that life here moves at a different pace.

It is easier and more comfortable to explore northern Laos by boat than by road, The Mekong River runs like a major artery for the length of the country and its vast network of tributaries remains the best way to visit the remote interior. Having watched the movie Apocalypse Now more times than is good for my psychological well-being, I was initially disorientated that a journey along the Mekong did not involve musical accompaniment from The Doors, The Rolling Stones and Wagner. [Read more...]

‘Nothing comes to my desk that is perfectly solvable. Otherwise, someone else would have solved it’, explained US President Barack Obama to a journalist in 2012. He said this in a moment of candour before the presidential election campaign got underway in earnest, before such frank insights are replaced by the blunt certainties required by campaigning. He went on to explain that to be president you need to feel comfortable about making decisions when there is a 30% to 40% chance that the decision will be the wrong one. [Read more...]

It is 3am in Seoul and, for now, sleep eludes me. I look out of the window across the Gangnam district of the Korean capital. Gangnam is now famous for the internet music video sensation – Gangnam Style – which has put this upmarket but otherwise unremarkable area of downtown Seoul on the map.

The Gangnam Style dance looks rather like trying to energetically ride a horse with your underpants on fire so I contemplate leaping around my hotel room in similar vein in an attempt to tire myself out and thus fall asleep before the early morning client meeting I have just flown nearly 9,000 kilometres to attend. But the chances of me being able do so without breaking at least one limb are remote. When dancing skills – in fact, any type of hand-eye or rhythmic coordination – were being handed out, I was right at the back of the queue. Watching somebody wade through custard is the kindest way anybody has ever come up with to describe my dance floor manoeuvres. [Read more...]

There is a statue of Sir Winston Churchill outside my hotel in Mexico City. I have no idea why. I don’t think he ever visited Mexico or played any role in the country. The statue depicts him in his war-time boiler suit with what is meant to be an expression of grim determination on his face. Actually, he just looks grumpy.

I am not sure why:  a sunny Sunday morning in the upmarket Polanco district of Mexico City is a pretty cheerful place to be with its relaxed café culture and tree lined streets. It is rather like Barcelona. But with fewer pick pockets. [Read more...]

I found myself being driven through the streets of London at 5.00 am this morning. Pre-dawn London is magnificent. The city looks splendid: bright and sharp against a clear autumn night sky. And the lack of traffic means that the collection of medieval villages that now constitute this great international city fall into geographical context. Rather than sitting snarled in traffic losing sense of how London knits together, my taxi sped from Bermondsey to Southwark to Lambeth to Westminster to Knightsbridge to Kensington and beyond; the ancient place names – each resonant with London’s long and tangled history – that have now been absorbed into one vast urban metropolis.

My journey took me to BBC Television Centre in west London where I was wheeled out as the latest talking head analysing the impact of Hurricane Sandy as it battered the east coast of the United States. It actually feels a little uncomfortable sitting in the cosy studio of the BBC Today Programme talking about a human disaster unfolding thousands of miles away. How can you begin to articulate sensitively the key points about disaster management succinctly in just a few minutes when you are sandwiched tightly between job losses at a Swiss bank and management changes at Apple? [Read more...]

Mt Halgurd is the high point of Iraq. Having been a regular visitor to a country that has had more than its fair share of low points in the past few decades, I leapt at the opportunity to stand on the top of Iraq’s highest peak and see an aspect of this country rarely seen by outsiders.

Mt Halgurd is in the North East corner of the Kurdish region of Iraq, high in the Zagros Mountains that stretch in an arc from the Strait of Hormuz in Iran northwards through Iraq to the Turkish border. Buried under deep snow for much of the year, they are still snow free in October and the ascent of Halgurd, while not a technically difficult climb, is made more demanding by the thinness of the air at 3,620 metres (11,876 feet) and the lack of distinct paths. A local guide is advisable, in our case a former fighter with the Peshmerga, the Kurdish militia that fought a bitter struggle against the forces of Saddam Hussein.

The view from the top is worth the effort, a stunning panorama of mountains and ridges baked brown by the long hot summer even though temperatures at the top are near freezing. North across a deep valley is Iran where you can make out a series of Iranian border posts dotted along the ridge opposite, a useful warning that even in good weather you need to be careful to descend back the way you came and not stray into the hands of an Iranian border patrol, a point not lost on our guide. [Read more...]

Yesterday in New York, it was the same cloudless blue sky as eleven years ago. The anniversary of the 9/11 attacks – like the day itself – was one of those immaculate early fall days. The heat of the summer has abated and the city sparkles in warm sunshine.

Walking to a meeting in the financial district past the Freedom Tower built on the site of the World Trade Centre, New York seemed quieter than usual.  Many people had stayed at home or were attending memorial services. The atmosphere was reflective and respectful, not sombre or morbid. And generally New York’s mood at the moment reflects the weather: bright and fresh. Indeed, the city seems to defy economic gravity. America’s recovery may be anaemic and the financial services industry – the lifeblood of New York prosperity – is still spooked by Eurozone fears. But walking down Fifth Avenue you have little sense of the hardship faced by millions of people across the country. This city hums. [Read more...]